Quebec regions nearly match Ontario's economic output, but Montreal lags Toronto

MONTREAL · Quebec's regional economies have almost entirely closed their per capita output gap with Ontario, according to a new analysis. The report from the Institut du Quebec research group shows that when Toronto and Montreal are excluded, Quebec's gross domestic product per capita reached 99 per cent of Ontario's level by 2022. This marks a significant convergence from 2011, when the same measure stood at 91 per cent. However, the study found the economic disparity between the two provinces' largest cities remains wide and unchanged.

Per capita GDP in Montreal has stayed at approximately 80 per cent of Toronto's level over the same period, the report states. Institut du Quebec economist Jean-Baptiste Vallantin-Dulac said the persistent gap is not necessarily due to poor performance in Montreal. "Montreal hasn't necessarily performed poorly, but that Toronto's economy is heavily based on the lucrative finance and insurance sectors," said Vallantin-Dulac. The research group warns that the gap between Montreal and Toronto may widen if Quebec doesn't reverse its immigration policies to attract a highly-skilled workforce. The analysis highlights a decade of stronger economic growth in Quebec's regions outside its metropolis compared to similar areas in Ontario. By removing the two major cities from the comparison, the researchers aimed to measure the performance of smaller urban and rural economies. The near parity in regional per capita GDP suggests a closing of a long-standing economic divide between the two provinces beyond their core urban areas.

The report, first published on Nov. 10, 2026, frames immigration policy as a critical factor for Montreal's future competitiveness. The Institut du Quebec suggests that attracting more highly-skilled workers is essential for the city to keep pace with Toronto's economic engine. The findings show a contrasting narrative of regional convergence alongside metropolitan stagnation within Quebec's economic landscape.

With files from The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg and CityNews