University of Manitoba tests AI system to cut surgical wait times

WINNIPEG · The University of Manitoba is exploring whether artificial intelligence can reduce surgical wait times, a persistent challenge for the province's health-care system. Researchers say more than 1,300 people are facing an orthopedic surgery backlog, with a median wait time of 170 days. Dr. Jay Toor, an assistant professor at the Rady Faculty of Health Sciences and an orthopedic surgeon, is leading an initiative to develop a new AI-powered system called The Operating Room Intelligence and Optimization Network, or ORION. The system is designed to better predict surgical needs and improve operating room scheduling, aiming to give hospital teams information to plan ahead rather than react to problems.

The project will be tested at Manitoba's largest hospital, Health Sciences Centre. "When we ran this program at Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto, this was like a preliminary version of it, we were able to increase efficiency up to 30 per cent; that means 30 per cent faster," said Toor. He explained that such gains are achieved without building new operating rooms or hiring more staff. "You're just able to squeeze more efficiency out of this existing stuff without stressing out staff."

In the first year, the team will use ORION to analyze 10 years of historical patient data from HSC to determine how accurately the AI model would have predicted past surgical demand. The second year will focus on prospective testing. "I'm very optimistic we're going to be the first jurisdiction that uses a predicted and optimized AI model to schedule our surgeries," Toor said. He believes ORION could create capacity for five to eight per cent more orthopedic surgeries and reduce wait times by up to 15 per cent. More efficient scheduling could also save the province $2-4 million annually, he added.

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"We have to build out more infrastructure, but what we don't want to do is build our infrastructure that we haven't made more efficient first, so this is an incremental step," Toor said. "There's going to be a lot of changes to our health system, and things are trending in the right direction." For patients like Guy Arnel, who lives with chronic pain, such changes cannot come soon enough. After years of back pain and waiting for surgery in Manitoba, Arnel travelled to Mexico last year and paid around $35,000 for his procedure. Now, less than two years later, he is in pain again and waiting for hip surgery, having been told it could take up to 18 months in Manitoba.

"I'm still an active guy. I do lots of crazy stuff. Now I can't do anything. Just sit and wait," Arnel said. "Eighteen months, to me, is terrible to hobble around. I'm so tired of hobbling around." He is now looking out of province again for surgery, citing costs of $30,000 in Calgary, $24,000 in Quebec, $30,000 in Ontario and $12,000 in Saskatchewan. "So that's what I'm working on right now to go to Regina and see what I can get done there," he said. "I'm running out of money, but your health is important." While researchers work on the AI technology to try to reduce the backlog, Arnel said he is not confident it will change anything.

With files from BNN Bloomberg