Toronto Tempo finish inaugural season with best odds for No. 1 WNBA draft pick

The Toronto Tempo's inaugural WNBA season concluded Wednesday with a 95-81 road loss to the Connecticut Sun, but the defeat carries significant silver linings for the expansion franchise's future. By matching Connecticut's 11-33 record, the Tempo now share equal 29.5% odds for the top selection in the 2027 draft lottery - positioning the club to potentially land generational talent JuJu Watkins should the USC guard declare.

How the lottery odds shake out

Under the WNBA's weighted lottery system, a team's record over the previous two seasons determines draft positioning. While Connecticut's .250 winning percentage combines their 22-66 mark across 2025 and 2026, Toronto benefits from having only their expansion season counted. The identical single-season records trigger a unique tiebreaker: the league will combine both teams' odds before dividing them equally, with Connecticut receiving any odd-numbered combination advantage due to Toronto winning the season series between the clubs.

According to Libaan Osman of the Toronto Star, the league is not expected to finalize official lottery percentages this week. The current projection gives both franchises a 29.5% chance at the top pick - the highest possible odds under the system. Should the Tempo land the first selection, they would likely spend it on Watkins, the electrifying USC guard considered the presumptive top prospect if she enters the draft.

Building through the draft

Securing the top pick would accelerate Toronto's rebuild dramatically. Watkins averaged 24.3 points per game as a freshman before leading USC to the NCAA championship game last season, establishing herself as one of women's basketball's brightest young stars. Pairing her with existing Tempo building blocks could transform the franchise from expansion strugglers to playoff contenders quickly.

The Tempo's inaugural campaign saw flashes of promise despite the challenging record. Rookie forward Nyadiew Puoch emerged as a two-way force, while veteran guard Lexie Brown provided leadership and perimeter scoring. Adding a franchise centerpiece like Watkins would complete the core for head coach Karima Christmas-Kelly's system.

Connecticut's parallel path

The Sun face an identical crossroads after posting matching records. Connecticut has endured two dismal seasons since their 2024 Finals appearance, with injuries and roster turnover derailing what was once a perennial contender. Like Toronto, they view the 2027 draft as a potential turning point.

This creates an intriguing subplot between the clubs, who now share not only identical records but overlapping timelines for resurgence. The lottery could determine which franchise emerges from rebuild mode first, with Watkins' arrival potentially swinging the balance of power in the Eastern Conference.

The Watkins factor

All eyes will be on the 20-year-old USC star's decision whether to declare for the draft. Watkins has eligibility remaining but projects as a ready-made WNBA contributor after her dominant college career. Her combination of scoring prowess, playmaking and defensive intensity makes her the consensus top prospect.

For Toronto, landing Watkins would provide the marketing centerpiece and on-court leader the expansion franchise needs. The Tempo ranked near the bottom of the league in attendance during their first season, but adding a transcendent talent could boost interest dramatically in Canada's first WNBA market.

What comes next

The draft lottery process will unfold in the coming months, with the exact date yet to be announced. Toronto's front office must prepare contingency plans for every possible outcome, from securing the top pick to sliding down the order.

General manager Chelsea Newton has emphasized building through both the draft and strategic acquisitions. Even without Watkins, the Tempo project to have significant cap space and assets to continue reshaping the roster this offseason. But the difference between selecting first versus later could determine whether Toronto's competitive window opens in 2027 or further down the line.

Why it matters

For an expansion franchise, securing elite young talent is the fastest path to relevance. The Tempo's inaugural season provided necessary growing pains, but landing a potential superstar like Watkins could accelerate their timeline exponentially. It would signal Toronto's arrival as a serious WNBA market while providing the on-court production to back up that status.

The stakes extend beyond basketball operations. A winning team featuring a marketable star would boost attendance, sponsorship interest and media coverage - crucial elements for sustaining the WNBA's first Canadian outpost. While nothing is guaranteed in the lottery, the Tempo have positioned themselves optimally to potentially land the franchise-altering piece every expansion team covets.