Polymarket investigates suspicious betting on Israeli election outcome
The prediction market platform is reviewing hundreds of new accounts that placed well-timed wagers on a Netanyahu victory.
NEW YORK · Prediction market platform Polymarket is investigating a wave of suspicious betting activity surrounding Israel's recent general election. The company confirmed it is reviewing trades placed by hundreds of newly created accounts that wagered on incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party winning. Data analysis firms Polysights and Bubblemaps flagged the activity, noting massive inflows of "YES" buys on fresh wallets betting on a Likud victory just before polls closed on Tuesday. "This appears to be the latest attempt to manipulate prediction markets," a high-level source told iGamingFuture.
Many of the accounts in question were created less than an hour before voting ended. According to The New York Times, one account created just 20 minutes before polls closed bet US$14,000 on a Likud win and later cashed out for US$42,000 after the odds rose. Polysights reported there is over US$700,000 in potential payouts for a Netanyahu win from "fresh wallets with no trading history." Some accounts have already jointly netted over US$100,000 in profits following exit polls that indicated Netanyahu's bloc performed better than earlier projections. Polymarket's internal team said it is reviewing dozens of new wallets tied to two specific markets: one asking if Netanyahu will become the next prime minister, and a second assessing whether Likud will end up with the most seats. After polls closed, odds for Netanyahu on the platform jumped to 59 per cent while those for his main opponent, Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, fell to 21 per cent. One newly created wallet could net around US$180,000 if both the Netanyahu and Likud outcomes settle in its favor.
Pattern of insider trading allegations
The incident adds to a series of insider trading allegations involving Polymarket over the past 18 months. In April, the U.S. Department of Justice charged Army Special Forces Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, alleging he used classified military secrets to make US$409,000 in profits on trades related to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Earlier this year, Israeli authorities also brought charges against a reservist and a civilian, alleging they exploited classified military intelligence to wager on Polymarket about Israel's security operations in Iran.
The controversies have drawn political scrutiny in Washington. On Thursday, U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, and John Curtis, a Republican from Utah, sent a letter to Polymarket and its rival Kalshi questioning how well the platforms can police insider trading and manipulation in election-linked markets. "The identification of isolated instances of improper trading does not demonstrate that these markets are adequately protected," they wrote. "Instead, it raises serious questions about how much similar activity may be going undetected." Both Polymarket, led by 28-year-old Shayne Coplan, and Kalshi, run by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, are fighting lawsuits and investigations across the United States concerning their legal status, market manipulation and insider betting. The platforms operate on blockchain technology, making every transaction visible on a public ledger, though analysts note separating insider activity from legitimate research or luck remains challenging.