Proposed oil pipeline unlikely to bring back Alberta's jobs boom, experts say

FORT MCMURRAY · Experts and industry forecasts say a proposed pipeline to Canada's Pacific Coast is not expected to recreate the massive job boom that once defined Alberta's oil sands. Prime Minister Mark Carney supports the project to open Asian markets and reduce reliance on the United States. He recently told residents in Fort McMurray not to expect another boom. "I wouldn't use the term 'boom'," Carney said. "I would use 'sustained growth'." The pipeline would move one million barrels of oil daily.

An industry forecast projects oil sands employment will fall by 4 percent by 2035 even as production rises. The Energy Safety Canada report said the pipeline could stop job losses but would likely create few permanent roles. Dianna De Sousa, CEO of the Fort McMurray Chamber of Commerce, said the past will not repeat. "Nobody should expect that something that happened 15 years ago will happen the same way today," De Sousa said. Carney's office declined to comment on the jobs outlook.

The region's last boom, from 2000 to 2014, saw huge investments and drew workers with high salaries. That period ended with an oil price crash in 2015 and a major wildfire the next year. Investor pressure over environmental standards and former prime minister Justin Trudeau's climate policies also led international companies to pull back. Capital investment in the oil sands fell from 35 billion dollars in 2014 to 14.2 billion dollars last year, according to Statistics Canada.

READ MORE: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, mostly in public sector

READ MORE: RBC warns Canada's energy sector faces risk of costly overruns in $100-billion build-out

Today the oil and gas sector employs about 435,000 people in Alberta, 85,000 fewer than in 2014. Real disposable income is 10 percent lower than a decade ago and housing values have dropped. While higher prices have spurred some recovery, empty storefronts and light flights signal ongoing struggle. "Things are not getting better," said Jenny Parsons, a truck driver who moved from Newfoundland 15 years ago. Parsons said her pay has barely risen since 2011.

Companies have not committed the estimated 100 billion dollars in private investment needed to supply the pipeline and build required carbon capture facilities. Kendall Dilling of the Oil Sands Alliance said the developments could create thousands of jobs across Canada by the mid-2030s. Many would be temporary construction jobs in British Columbia and elsewhere. Dilling said future employment gains "may be less than the absolute peaks that we've seen in the past." Automation and more efficient maintenance are already reducing labour needs.

Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said he cut corporate taxes to spur investment but companies later prioritized shareholder returns. "I was certainly frustrated with them," Kenney told Reuters. He said he urged firms to invest some tax savings back into projects. "The people need to see a benefit, not just the shareholder in New York." The main industry group did not directly address his criticism but said the pipeline would boost production and government revenue.

Limited job growth could fuel criticism of Carney from environmentalists and conservatives alike. It could also strengthen Alberta's separatist movement, though a referendum on pursuing independence is expected to fail on Monday. Parsons plans to vote for that referendum. Carney's pipeline stance has eased federal-provincial tensions but angered some in his Liberal Party. His government sees oil expansion as a shield against potential U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump.

Carney has reversed several Trudeau-era environmental policies and promoted Canadian oil abroad. His approval rating was 62 percent in a September poll. Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, noted public support can shift. "It's important to remember that the environmental policies of Justin Trudeau were widely popular at the time," Williams said. She added that future green alternatives could make new pipelines harder to sell. Some companies now hire more locally, reducing the fly-in workforce that strained infrastructure during the last boom.

With files from Belaaz