Canadian auto sales rise for fourth straight month in September
Sales increased 3.4 percent year-over-year, but are still down 0.7 percent for the year so far.
RICHMOND HILL — Canadian auto sales rose for a fourth consecutive month in September, according to DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.
The firm estimates 168,000 vehicles were sold in the month, up 3.4 per cent from September 2025.
Andrew King, managing partner at DesRosiers, says the market has shown stability in recent months despite conflict in the Middle East and a tariff dispute with the United States.
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DesRosiers said the recent run looks more like steady demand than a one-off spike.
After adjusting for the calendar, September’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) held at 1.91 million, staying in its recent range.
Year-to-date sales still lagging
Despite the winning streak, auto sales have slowed this year as gas prices remain raised and Canadian households pull back on spending amid geopolitical uncertainties.
On a year-to-date basis, auto sales are still 0.7 per cent lower than 2025 levels.
DesRosiers noted most automakers are still down for the year so far, but summer strength has created “hopeful signs”, including gains at Volkswagen, Toyota, and Stellantis.
In luxury, Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW are separated by only a few thousand units as the industry heads into the fourth quarter.
But DesRosiers says sales could be weaker in the fourth quarter, compared with stronger sales seen in 2025.
Incentives and new competition loom
Now the focus shifts from September’s count to what could change the pace.
DesRosiers flagged questions around fading EV incentives and new Chinese-brand launches.
The firm is watching whether federal and provincial electric vehicle (EV) incentives that step down at year-end pull some purchases into late-year months, and whether new Chinese-brand launches add fresh competition and supply.
When EV rebates shrink, it doesn’t just change the final price: it can change timing.
Buyers who were planning to purchase later may move that decision into the fourth quarter to lock in today’s support, which can tighten dealer inventory and delivery slots even if overall demand hasn’t truly improved.
The trade-off often shows up right after the deadline.
If a lot of sales were simply pulled forward, early-year demand can look softer, and that’s when dealers and automakers tend to lean more on discounts, financing promotions, or faster delivery to keep traffic moving.
The analysis follows other signs of consumer caution, as Calgary home sales and prices dipped in September.
With files from The Canadian Press, BNN Bloomberg and The Globe and Mail